By O'Malley's own hand

October 12, 2007

Call it Martin O'Malley's $1.7 billion problem.Eleven months ago, Marylanders voted a Republican governor out of office and gave General Assembly Democrats majorities of more than 2-1 in the House of Delegates and the state Senate. So, who would be to blame if Mr. O'Malley, a Democrat, fails to get legislation authorizing tax increases and slot machines through the legislature at a special session next month?

The Washington Post points at Republicans, and the newspaper's writers appear to be auditioning for a position as part of Mr. O'Malley's P.R. spin team. Here is the headline that appeared in the newspaper recently: "Maryland Republicans Imperil Passage of Slots Plan in Senate: GOP Won't Offer Support for Bill During Special Session." Omitted from the headline and the accompanying story was the fact that the Democrats hold 137 of the 188 seats in the General Assembly — commanding majorities of 33-14 in the Senate and 104-37 in the House of Delegates.

The fact is that Mr. O'Malley's plan is in trouble in part because: 1) He has failed to convince many of his liberal Democratic political allies that slots are a good idea; and 2) the tax increases that the governor is pushing have also alienated some of his prominent liberal supporters, including House Speaker Mike Busch, Anne Arundel Democrat, who is no fan of slots. So partisan politics is not the problem.

Right now, the governor's biggest political problems are in Montgomery County. State Comptroller Peter Franchot, a liberal Democrat from Montgomery, is lobbying furiously against Mr. O'Malley's slots program. Mr. Franchot, a staunch liberal, is pretty straightforward about his objections to slots: He would rather raise money through closing "loopholes" and finding myriad other ways to increase taxes. But the loudest opposition from Montgomery County, a formidable bastion of liberalism, is coming from wealthy Democrats alarmed about all of the higher taxes Mr. O'Malley wants to hit them with.

The Post yesterday noted what appears to be an incipient political rebellion against the governor's high-tax agenda from liberal Democratic politicians who are worried that Mr. O'Malley might chase their constituents across the river to Virginia, where the tax burden is lower. Noting that more 80 percent of the money that is expected to be generated by the governor's plans to increase income taxes for affluent Marylanders is expected to come from taxpayers in Montgomery County, County Executive Ike Leggett and Senate delegation leader Rona Kramer expressed concern that the higher tax burden could hurt the county's ability to compete with Virginia and the District of Columbia. Even Sheila Hixson, the Montgomery County Democrat who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, supports the governor's tax package and admits that the higher rates proposed by Mr. O'Malley are "going to be a problem politically and in every other way."

To be sure, Republican support for the governor's tax increases will be small to nonexistent — the result of strong philosophical disagreement with the governor's insistence on increasing titling fees and sales, income and gasoline taxes, among other things, and the fact that he froze Republicans out of the action in Annapolis. Tom LoBianco of The Washington Times reported that at a recent press event in Montgomery County, Mr. O'Malley said he talks frequently with Senate Minority Whip Allan Kittleman, Howard Republican. Mr. Kittleman said he has spoken twice with the governor since he took office: One time the governor congratulated him on being elected minority whip. The second time, he told Mr. Kittleman he was firing his mother, who served as president of the Maryland Transportation Authority under Gov. Robert Ehrlich.

Mr. O'Malley's political problems are self-made — the result of a combination of extremely liberal politics and a heavyhanded personal style that grates on people. If he continues to insist on a special session, then it is his job to pull a bipartisan coalition together. After that heavylifting is done, Mr. O'Malley will have to reveal to Marylanders his plan to get the state out of its $1.7 billion fiscal hole. They want to know whether his plan goes beyond reaching into their wallets.